Roland Garros 2007 Final - Federer A Season Of Plenty With Little Reaped!
Posted on January 15, 2008 - Filed Under Recreation and Sports
Why? You may ask and so may Roger, the answer is very simple. During the whole match Roger hit seven backhand slices and from this variation won 6 points, this is 90% success! He also hit one forced slice error as last resort on the stretch, which I do not count.
What does this mean? Roger was being stubborn and wanting to beat Nadal at Nadal’s own game with gruelling top-spin rallies. If Roger instead of hiting 100% of topspin backhands, had he mixed the slice only 60% of the times, statistically he would have won 50% more points! What would this mean for the match? Roger would have won the match in 3 straight sets! Mind boggling!
Now I go back to why Roger did not use the slice and I have to go back to when men lived in
caves, did not take showers, stinking like a swine was a macho thing, and they would rather die then shed a tear or two. Yes, it was about the “macho”, ego, thing, “I am going to beat you at your own game”. Costly mistake, you can not do that against Nadal, he does not take showers either! (Just kidding!)
Looking at the match and applying the slice theory on the first Set, Roger had ten break points and did not capitalize on any. Two break points in the fourth game, five in the sixth game and then three at 0/40 in the eighth game. Using the backhand slice at a 90% success rate the first set would have gone 6/2 or 6/3 to Federer and that is being generous to Nadal.
In the second set Roger at 5-3 had four set points in the ninth game, applying the slice 3 times would have sufficed to win the set 6/3 and start serving for the third set (what a difference it would have made). Instead the topspin backhand prevailed and Federer was forced to serve out the set.
Psychologically, the third set would have been much different with Federer two sets to love up and serving first. But, that was not the case and Nadal started serving and broke Federer’s first service game to rush to a 3-0 lead. In that set Federer paid the price for tentative approach shots to the net and a repeat of trading cross-court backhands to the high-kicking forehands from Nadal. Even here if the slice theory would have been applied the story line would have been completly different!
In the fourth set Nadal saved one break point in his first service game by winning a 23-point rally. Does Federer now regret he did not sneak in three or four slice backhands to win that game? Sure he does! Would that break have made a difference? Of course it would.
The final score was:
R. Federer 3 6 3 4
R. Nadal 6 4 6 6
Going back to applying the slice theory and the success rate it implied, had Roger instead of hiting 100% of topspin backhands, if he had mixed the slice only 60% of the times, statistically he would have won 50% more points, with the final score more like;
R. Federer 6 6 6
R. Nadal 3 2 4
With this I am just demonstrating the price you pay for “macho”, ego play and making your opponent look good by playing his game!
Given the circumstances above mentioned, Nadal very, very deservingly won another Roland Garros. Keep in mind that the physical and mental performance of Nadal, illustrates that extremely hard work on and off the court is behind it.
Here again I can not say the same about Roger’s physical status, which in my opinion was already very suspicious in 2006, in the Roland Garros match against David Nalbandian, where a serious stomach injury forced Nalbandian to abandon. This leads me to believe that someone at the Federer camp is just not doing his job as conditioning/fitness trainer.
Finally, I know Roger is disappointed for losing, but he must be proud of himself, he played some dazzling tennis troughout the tournament like none of his peers can, he is a great champion and millions of us wish him better luck next time.
Nadal’s gutsy play and the way he stood up to a 95% Federer crowd, deserves hats off and a bow. The “kid” from Majorca is a true champion! Congratulations, Rafa!
What should you learn from this? Never ever let your ego get in the way of victory!
For comments or ideas about this article please email the author
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Sergio Cruz is ex # 1 National Champion, Davis Cup Player from Portugal and former Coach Jim
Courier ATP World Ranking # 1
Contact: cruz@tenniscruz.com or http://www.tenniscruz.com
Tags: federe, french open, rafael nadal, Roger Federer, roland garros, tennis
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